Double 11 always brings a sense of nostalgia for me personally. I recall vividly the excitement of the midnight moment on 11 November 2012. I stood glued to a solitary computer screen in the office of Speedo’s Tmall partner in Hangzhou, watching the sales numbers soar. It was all about how much could be sold in the first five minutes, 30 minutes, one hour. We were witnessing world-record sales in a single day and on a single SKU.
This is the 16th year of the Double 11 festival. Since Alibaba started it in 2009, both China and Double 11 have transformed. That midnight moment I experienced doesn’t really exist anymore. Indeed, the 2024 version of Double 11 will be the longest festival yet, with Douyin kicking off proceedings as early as 8 October. By the time 11 November rolls around, most shoppers will have made their purchases. As we saw with the 618 festival earlier this year, shoppers may also experience fatigue from the endless promotions and noise.
Talking of noise, there’s noticeably less buzz on social media around Double 11 this year. The broader macroeconomic slowdown has tempered consumption growth in China, and major platforms have become increasingly secretive about reporting GMV results. Shoppers are now more level-headed and discerning, prioritising economic and emotional value in their purchases.
That said, there are still clear category winners, especially where brands have aligned strategy, marketing, and commerce effectively. Success in this market demands a current understanding of local trends and the ability to adapt quickly. Ultimately, the goal is long-term success in a highly competitive market, not just a single month of peak sales followed by a decline.
Early signs suggest that sports and outdoor brands will continue to see the biggest growth, whilst skincare will likely remain the largest category, albeit with marginal or stagnant growth. We additionally expect home appliances and electronics to benefit from the government subsidies, which add to the discounts applied to these specific categories. This active stimulation of e-commerce performance, coupled with the recent interest rate cuts and government stimulus package, is a clear sign of the PRC’s intent to boost consumption.
Platforms-wise, based on what we are hearing and seeing, Douyin will continue to take shares from Tmall and JD.com. In several categories, and possibly overall, Douyin could become the largest platform during this year’s festival.
Livestreamers will be a major driver of sales. They are already pushing very hard, even dipping into their own pockets to incentivise consumers in some cases. Although there have been a few livestreaming controversies regarding fake goods and online personas, top livestreamers with resources and exclusive discounts are likely to drive an element of drama and emotional purchase.
Established brands with deeper pockets are likely to generate substantial GMV during this festival. However, with the prevalence of coupons, aggressive price competition, unprecedented levels of returns, and the high fees paid to platforms and livestreamers, will brands actually drive meaningful profit from the festival?
Overall, Double 11 remains an important moment in the calendar. It will still play a key role for brands that leverage the opportunity to generate sales and gain both GMV and wider awareness. However, it is hard not to wonder whether its increasingly long days are soon to be numbered.
At Hot Pot, we’ve long advocated for sustained, year-round efforts and maintaining full-price propositions. It seems that at a time when consumers are becoming more discerning, this approach is one that grows increasingly relevant. Investing during more traditional and culturally driven moments like Chinese New Year, Qixi and Mid-Autumn Festival will be more important than ever from both a brand-building and profitability point-of-view in 2025.
Cover image screengrabbed via Taobao